Originally Posted by Russ Carroll
Most conservative media opposed Trump running again, and you see some pushback from elected GOP officials, but here is the problem: DeSantis, Cruz, Graham - they are not, nor have they ever been, afraid of Donald Trump. They are afraid of Greg and Richard and the 30% of Americans that would literally vote for Trump if he shot someone on 3rd Ave.
As a result, a fractured GOP primary season without a dominant front-runner is likely to produce another Trump nomination. Until this death grip on our compatriots here is lifted, Trump is the GOP, and we are in for another dreadful 4 years of a Democratic presidency.
While I agree that this is the most likely scenario, I have some hope. Two points:
1. Do you remember the point in time when Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris and everyone else dropped out of the D primary in what looked like a coordinated effort to pave the way for Joe. Was it really coordinated? I'm not sure, but the secondary candidates at least put party first. If one candidate goes head to head against Trump there is a good chance he can be beaten.
2. You are misreading Greg and possibly Rich (and by proxy voters like them). Greg has stated that he is a "lesser of two evils" guy, so he'll vote for Trump over Biden. That is all, he dislikes Trump for a lot of good reasons. So do many Greg-like voters. I would bet my 21 mm Ethos against a donut that Greg would vote for Cruz or DeSantis over Trump in a primary. Rich recently said that DeSantis was rapidly becoming his favorite politician. So I think Rich would possibly vote for DeSantis over Trump.
2A. Because of the above, I think that voters like me will be the problem. I would prefer Rubio, Romney, or Haley. Rubio and Romney are the guys who might split the votes of me and Greg and almost certainly would split the votes of me and Rich in a Rubio/Trump primary, for example. So, us Rinos and moderates need to fully support Cruz, DeSantis or whomever can be acceptable to Republican voters who are not "never Trump" already.
3. The people who actually think the 2020 election was stolen - the hard core MAGA types who would riot in DC again if they had the chance will support Trump, but the mid-terms show that their numbers are declining. With one fairly hard right candidate who can match Trump in a "fistfight" primary, I think he can be beat.
I was listening to NPR and their glee at having Trump back in the field was palpable. The left has anointed Trump as the candidate in '24. According to them it is a done deal. We Rs have to combat that - hopefully with all of the money backing "a palatable to Greg and Rich but not-Trump candidate" there is a shot.