Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by James Lacey

These numbers are coming from a model out of the University of Washington IHME. It's here if anyone cares: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They adjust the model and take into account what states are doing in real-time, so expect it to change some as time goes by. This model predicted 899 deaths for April 01, and today we had 954 deaths. For March 31, prediction 874 and actual 807. For March 30, prediction 519 and actual 511. The daily death rate will peak just in time for my birthday around mid-April, with around 2,600 deaths. By June 01, we will be closing in on 100K deaths, unless even more mitigation measures are activated. The people that put together these models are not partisan, and they are extremely good at what they do. They are epidemiologists and mathematical biologists who specialize in the patterns of and the predictions of the spread of infectious disease. They are more often than not entirely correct. If we choose to ignore their inputs, then we do so at our peril.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

The press asked him about this today during the briefing, and he passed the question off to the HHS inspector general.

By the way, Rod, that UW IHME model also shows predictions for each state. It's interesting to see.

Originally Posted by James Brown

How ridiculous.  I will be thrilled and overjoyed to admit that I was "wrong" if US deaths do not reach 100k. 

That is really quite a low number in a population over 300M, and all citizens of the US should all be thankful that we did not have millions dead.  I will most likely believe that the social distancing, closures and stay at home orders worked spectacularly, if we only have 100k dead.  You will believe that the virus is not all that lethal, and that we overreacted if we have less than 100k dead.  You will also believe that the overreaction was politically motivated.  

So it goes.

Jim!

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Maybe we'll just burn them all in a mass grave? How does that sound?  

Or you can simply start digging holes in your backyard.  You're really INTO this aren't you??  

Get your backhoe out.... 84 inches X 30 X 72 deep ought to do it.  

I'm sure that with your background in serial killing, you've probably buried a few bodies along the way, haven't you Rod?  

My guess is you've had some practice with that.  

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

He begged Putin? Can you inform us of the conversation they had?