Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

What Stats?  The stats a month ago when we were told that there would be 240K deaths in the US from Covid 19?  

Who told us that again?  Oh wait, YOU told us that.

I almost forgot.  

Is there a vaccine for Sars?  Is there a vaccine for AIDS?

Guys like YOU told us there would be.  

It's been over 30 years since your side of the aisle told us AIDS was going to be just as bad for Heterosexuals as it was for Homosexuals.

Gee, I GUESS YOU were wrong not once, not twice, but multiple times.  

So why the hell should we listen to idiots on your side of the political aisle who are SO SLEAZY that they are politicizing this for money?  

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Greg: 

I agree with a lot of what you have posted.  As you know, I support the cautious and calculated opening of the economies in most states, as those states see fit, and based upon the data applicable to that state. 

I don't know the ID of the 12 countries you have mentioned above.  I am pretty sure one of them is Sweden, which has received quite a bit of press because they chose not to have an enforced lock down.   I believe that the data actually shows that Sweden has paid a price for their relaxed approach to the pandemic.  Their infection rates and deaths do not track closely with the most similarly situated countries, which took more aggressive mitigation.  The Worldometer data shows that deaths per million for Sweden are over 6 times the deaths per million for the neighboring Scandinavian countries of Finland and Norway.

I've included New York and the rest of the US in the graph below, for perspective.  Also, it may well be that Sweden believes that 6x the death rate was "worth it" when compared to the cost of clamping down the economy.  I would probably buy into such an argument.

Very importantly, it is clear from the Worldometer data that the death and infection rates in Sweden are slowing along the same trajectories as those in Finland and Norway.  So arguably the Swedes were right all along.  I only dispute the fact that their death and infection rates tracked similar countries who implemented more aggressive mitigation.  At lease not so far.  Maybe the other Scandinavian countries will catch up as restrictions are relaxed.  That would make the Swedes look pretty smart.

Jim

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Yes, you did tell us that there would be 240K deaths.  Your leftists around the world at Imperial College gave us those numbers.

  You and those like you don't have a clue.  As Lenin pegged you, useful idiots.  

That describes the left these days, and you to a tee!  

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

For anyone following the Dan Zowada Memorial Observatory, I'm very proud to say that the first published article in The Astrophysical Journal using measurements from it was put online in prerelease form today:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.03685.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3BJSqar0UN45L6DEhNIfDxbMGsnjwqPQqjSdbAXr302UeGtnGt77DQ-_4

I return you to your debate already in progress.

Russ

Originally Posted by James Brown

Serious question, is there a consensus building that the conronavirus lays low in the summer, or in hot humid environments?  As recently as a week or two ago that was a much debated point. 

Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

Whoa.  That is a cool web page, even though displaying chilling data.  Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

Jim 

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Are you still hiding underneath your bed, Rod?😷🤒🤧

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi James:

It is easy for an epidemiologist to observe, as we cautiously relax the stay at home orders, that extra lives will be lost.  I agree, slowly reopening society means extra lives will be lost.  This is undeniable. 

But, is saving those extra lives worth the measures necessary to save them?  I think it is safe to say that the best way to literally minimize the overall number of deaths is to remain locked down indefinitely, at least until we have a 100% effective therapy or vaccine.  Does anyone think indefinite total lock down is a tenable plan?  Of course not.

So, I disagree that "it is the scientists we need to be listening to," if that statement means "scientists only" and I think it did.  I would say that we need to listen to the scientists, economists, philosophers and Joe six-pack too.   The brutal calculus is that anything we do short of a total and indefinite national lock down is going to kill some folks, maybe lots of them.  We need to weigh the cost of those lives against the cost of minimizing deaths, and that is not a question of pure science.

It certainly is a question that must be informed by science.  I don't think that my governor, yours, Kemp or even Trump is ignoring the scientists.  I do think these decisions are bigger than considering only the scientific means to minimize loss of life at all cost.

Jim