Reagan Foundation Disses Trump Campaign: Don't' Use His Image With Trump...Posted By Rod Kaufman |
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
That's assuming Trump even makes to November and doesn't wind up on a vent:Originally Posted by James Brown
Apparently, the other time it was wrong was 1960. http://primarymodel.com/
Also, this model is "unconditional and not subject to change." It is a simple model that weights primary performance and the historical fact that the incumbent of 4 years is likely to win again. Personally, I think that models based upon historical voter behavior are not that applicable to Trump.
Jim
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
Covidiot...Originally Posted by Darian Rachal
Rod, it's obvious that everyone doesn't live in fear like you do. The only reason I put one on is because I'm forced to in order to enter businesses. The virus is not at the forefront of my mind. The idiocy surrounding it is. I guess you'll wear a mask until CNN tells you it's okay not to wear one.😷💀😜
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
Funny, I thought it was your avatar...Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer
As I said it is totally reserved for you Rod.....
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
Not to mention the RCP electoral data has about twice as many for Biden Vs Trump, roughly equivalent of the "landslide" in the model but in favor of Biden...Originally Posted by James Lacey
Real Clear Politics Averages for this week:
RCP Average 7/9 - 7/24 -- -- 50.6 41.3 Biden +9.3
CBS News/YouGov 7/21 - 7/24 1401 LV -- 51 41 Biden +10
Harvard-Harris 7/21 - 7/23 1932 RV -- 55 45 Biden +10
Rasmussen Reports 7/15 - 7/21 2500 LV 2.0 47 45 Biden +2
The Hill/HarrisX 7/17 - 7/20 2829 RV 1.8 45 38 Biden +7
FOX News 7/12 - 7/15 1104 RV 3.0 49 41 Biden +8
ABC News/Wash Post 7/12 - 7/15 673 LV -- 54 44 Biden +10
CNBC/Change Research (D)* 7/10 - 7/12 1258 LV 2.8 51 41 Biden +10
Quinnipiac 7/9 - 7/13 1273 RV 2.8 52 37 Biden +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 7/9 - 7/12 900 RV 3.3 51 40 Biden +11
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
No, we're not forgetting it and that was then and not now. Furthermore, in the cases of Dukakis vs Bush 1 and Clinton vs Trump, both were races with neither candidates being incumbents. We've had nearly 4 years of Trump and he's a known unliked quantity...Originally Posted by Greg ShafferYou guys must be forgetting that historically quite a few candidates for President have shown a clear 10% lead in the polls several months prior (including about now) and lost dramatically.....
Heard of Helmut Norpoth?Posted By Rod Kaufman |
What worries me in all of this is the Fox news/Sinclair group propaganda machine. For instance, just checking the lead articles on Fox at the moment: "Biden-Sanders radical leftist manifesto should be a warning to voters", "What Is Joe Biden's Healthcare Plan?" No mention of Trump's bogus claim that we're all going to have "the biggest and best healthcare at the lowest cost" and, of course, Trump has no healthcare plan at all.Originally Posted by James Lacey
All you have to do is be unwilling to consider well-sourced contrary evidence, and listen to only positive feedback loops of data from sympathetic sources, and engage in some magical thinking. Then you, too, will see how Trump is going to blow this thing wide open!
