Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Last one.

These are great, Maurice.  Where were you at the time?  Surely not Alabama!  Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

You are an uninformed idiot, which is fun because you constantly act like only you have the correct information. The guy has been released on bail; it looks like he won't face any federal charges, and from what I have read, he has told Fox News that he is a registered Republican and Trump supporter and had no intent to harm anyone. He is also a first-class conspiracy theorist and even has a podcast called "Blood Money" that focuses on conspiracy theories. I'm pretty sure you and he would be fast friends, which is a sad commentary on the state of the Republican party today.

Awesome post!

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Trump will be re-elected. I base this on the fact that Trump is actually leading in early voting in the swing states. Democrats ALWAYS lead in early voting, period. The fact that Harris is the deciding factor in my opinion. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4932890-donald-trump-kamala-harris-battleground-states-harvard-harris-survey/

Welcome to a fascist and authoritarian state next year...

Rod, it might be over, it might not.  Silver's model has moved to nearly 50/50 over the last week, and Trump does have some momentum.  I looked at most of the 80 slides from this survey, and there are indeed plenty of strong numbers for Trump. https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-october-5/

Even so, Harris is winning in the "nation wide" early voting by 8% according to this survey.   (See slide 30 reproduced below).  Obviously early voting in CA and NY is irrelevant, but I am not sure you are comparing apples to apples here.  My guess is that the conventional wisdom of "Democrats ALWAYS lead in the early voting..." is based upon nationwide statistics from past elections, and Harris is leading nationwide.  I could be wrong, and if you have early voting stats from GA, NV, AZ, WI, PA, or MI from the last election that would be very interesting and a better comparison.

Also, I am not sure how many of the swing states even have significant early voting.  As of the October 5 survey date, the number of swing state respondents who could honestly tell this survey they had already voted is probably a very small sample size.  (I did not get my ballot until late last week, for example).  I think slide 29 with Trump leading both registered and likely voters in the swing states (by 2%) is more significant, and this is consistent with a lot of other recent polling.

So, Trump has had a good week of polling as reflected in Silver's model, the RCP averages and the betting markets.  But it is not over yet, not by a long shot.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

One thing to consider is that Harris is leading nationally, even though some single one-of-polls say otherwise. Also, most models say that the chance of winning the Electoral College and not winning the popular vote is close to zero. This bodes well for Harris. Of course, what matters is what is happening in the swing states, and Harris still seems to hold a small yet significant lead in most of them. At this point, it's, at worst, a toss-up, but far from over, IMHO.

Hi James:  I do not believe the bolded part is accurate for Republicans.  The obvious reason is that Harris will run up her popular vote totals massively in her most populous states, California, New York, and Illinois, while Trump's most populous states Texas, Ohio, and Florida are relatively more competitive.

Nate Silver quantifies this.  He gives Harris a 24% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the EC.  (Trump has a 0.2% chance of a popular vote win and EC loss.)  More importantly, Silver's model shows that Harris needs to win the popular vote by about 3% to be likely to win the EC.  See below and https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

I am a fan of Silver's of course, his model used to be the 538 model and which was correct in 2020, and the only model that did not do a total face plant in 2016.  When Silver sold the 538 brand, he wisely kept the intellectual property underlying his model.

Silver has the EC at 51% Harris and 49% Trump this morning, which is effectively a tie.  In other words, his model has 51 Harris balls and 49 Trump balls in a sack and the public gets to pick one.  (I know you know that, but I find the analogy to be a useful visualization.)  

So, if the polls continue to tighten, I am with Rod, this is starting to look like Trump's year.   Right now the RCP average has Harris winning the popular vote by only 1.4% which is not enough.   RCP has Trump winning the battleground states by 0.4% and has Trump winning the EC with no toss-ups by 302 to 236.   All of this is well within the margins of error, but the trend lines have been favorable to Trump for about two weeks. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi James:  I do not believe the bolded part is accurate for Republicans.  The obvious reason is that Harris will run up her popular vote totals massively in her most populous states, California, New York, and Illinois, while Trump's most populous states Texas and Florida are more competitive.

Nate Silver quantifies this.  He gives Harris a 24% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the EC.  (Trump has a 0.2% chance of a popular vote win and EC loss.)  More importantly, Silver's model shows that Harris needs to win the popular vote by about 3% to be likely to win the EC.  See below and https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

I am a fan of Silver's of course, his model used to be the 538 model and which was correct in 2020, and the only model that did not do a total face plant in 2016.  When Silver sold the 538 brand, he wisely kept the intellectual property underlying his model.

Silver has the EC at 51% Harris and 49% Trump this morning, which is effectively a tie.  In other words, his model has 51 Harris balls and 49 Trump balls in a sack and the public gets to pick one.  (I know you know that, but I find the analogy to be a useful visualization.)  

So, if the polls continue to tighten, I am with Rod, this is starting to look like Trump's year.   Right now the RCP average has Harris winning the popular vote by only 1.4% which is not enough.   RCP has Trump winning the battleground states by 0.4% and has Trump winning the EC with no toss-ups by 302 to 236.   All of this is well within the margins of error, but the trend lines have been favorable to Trump for about two weeks. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Jim

Also, I see Harris is doing an interview with Brett Baier of Fox news tomorrow.  This is a bold move, but risky of course.  If she does well, Harris will put to bed the persistent story that she is only getting by with help from friendly press.  If she does poorly, it could be end game, especially if CBS is goaded into releasing the entire 60 minutes tape and it looks really bad.  

https://x.com/BretBaier/status/1845868430282338693

In either case, I do not think the Harris campaign would consent to an interview on Fox if they did not think they were currently losing.  Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

Also, I see Harris is doing an interview with Brett Baier of Fox news tomorrow.  This is a bold move, but risky of course.  If she does well, Harris will put to bed the persistent story that she is only getting by with help from friendly press.  If she does poorly, it could be end game, especially if CBS is goaded into releasing the entire 60 minutes tape and it looks really bad.  

https://x.com/BretBaier/status/1845868430282338693

In either case, I do not think the Harris campaign would consent to an interview on Fox if they did not think they were currently losing.  Jim

Last point, and I don't want to force Rod out onto the ledge, but on this date in 2020 the RCP national average had Biden up by a whopping 10%   As noted above, Harris is only up 1.4% in the RCP national average today.  Just before the 2020 election day, the RCP national average had Biden up 7.2%

Biden only went on to win the national average in 2020 by 4.4%, so the polling averages 3 weeks out and at the end were significantly or somewhat off in Biden's favor.  Even the slightest polling error in Harris's favor this year means that Trump is likely to win.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

I mentioned this below, but it deserves a thread of it's own.   

I think a no-preconditions, minimally edited interview on Fox is a bold move by Harris.  She can put to bed all of the possibly justified complaints that she has only talked to friendly outlets like "The View" Colbert, Howard Stern and the "Call me Daddy" podcast.  She can quiet those who argue CBS deceptively edited the 60 minutes interview.

She can also deliver a campaign ending horror show if she does not bring her A game.  A lot of swing voters, RINOs, and independents watch Fox, according to the Nielsen ratings.   Is the risk worth it?  What do you all think?  I am looking forward to watching this one.  

Jim

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4933371-bret-baier-kamala-harris-fox-news-interview-pre-taped/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/business/media/fox-news-kamala-harris-interview.html
https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/2024-election-data-hub/

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I think you mistyped, however I just wanted to ask, wasn't it an Insurrection rather than a riot?

LOL!!

So, your psychosis also involves hallucinating typos where none exist?  I am so very sorry.

Originally Posted by Brian McFarland

Yeah, it was actually naked eye from the city here in Southern California!  Unfortunately, the clouds have been rolling in from the coast in the late afternoon/early evening the last couple days.

Brian

First clouds in nearly a month rolled in last night here.  It's raining now.  

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Hi Jim,

Of course he won't, according to dickie dodgeball he is the greatest expositor of wisdom who has ever lived and the total font of all knowledge ever gained. Hence the alternative moniker of pope richie. A true legend... in his own mind!

All he can ever do is copy others. Never had an original thought. Not surprising given his lack of education.

Hi all, I hope you all saw Maurice's great Aurora photos up in "After Dark"?  Aurora Borealis, not Aurora, Colorado home of some, or a lot of, Venezuelan gangsters, depending upon whom you talk to!  (gratuitous political nod!) 

Anyway, those are great shots Maurice.  Where were you at the time?  If the Aurora were that nice in Alabama, I'm shocked!  I was in Santa Barbara CA at the time and it was cloudy/hazy, but people could definitely see/photograph them here in CO, but nowhere nearly as spectacular as your pics.   Jim