Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

I'm driving Toronto to New Brunswick tomorrow and Tuesday to visit my cousin in Miramichi.  It will be early Tuesday evening when I arrive so we're going to have a couple of steaks on the BBQ and then get the guitars going.  Some of his friends are coming by so a regular down-east kitchen party will happen.  There is zero plan to watch the results as they come in....(" we have 1% of the polls in so we're calling <state> for <candidate> at this time.... - here's talking head to explain it all for you....." blah blah all night long....)   Wednesday morning will be soon enough to turn on CBC and find out how many lawsuits and other shenanigans will be delaying the definitive, legal result.  

How about you folks!!

Dave

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-tops-trump-latest-iowa-poll-marking-turnaround-des-moines-register-survey-2024-11-03/

Maybe it’s an outlier as Trump’s campaign is saying, but this pollster was correct in 2020 and 2016 with Trump up by a lot in Iowa which foreshadowed what happened in the swing states, that Trump was popular and it would be very close. 

Whoever wins won’t affect me, but it will affect my grandkids, so I want Trump to go down.

Selfishly I’ve been praying for a Harris victory for one other reason. I want to see a certain head explode. LOL.

Originally Posted by James Brown

The same day, another pollster had Trump up 9 in IA.  One of them must be wrong!  Did you see Silver's article about poll herding this year?  It is very good.  Far to many pollsters (far more than is mathematically plausible given the margin of error in any political poll) have been herding toward the Trump +1, Harris +1 virtual tie scenarios for all the swing states.  The new Des Moines poll can certainly not be accused of following the herd!  

https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state

My own conclusion as of yesterday, based in part upon this tendency of the pollsters to herd, is that one of Trump or Harris is going to win the electoral college pretty easily, but we have no idea yet who the winner will be.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

It's the local governments but the EPA determines the maximum amount of fluoridation that can be added. I suppose if the Trump/Kennedy team ordered the EPA to reduce the maximum amount down to undetectable levels, it could effectively circumvent whatever the local governments decide to do with it.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

If the the pollsters and pundits are to be believed, and the Harris campaign strategy is correct, it'll come down to which candidate has the best voter-turnout mechanism. 
For the Harris campaign, it has been a massive effort with many busloads of campaign volunteers knocking on doors in critical battleground states. The number of busses and volunteers may be unprecedented in presidential campaigns. 

Will it be enough and will it be successful?, we'll soon find out...

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

He stands behind his prediction:


https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/video/lichtman-harris-prediction-trump-election-digvid

Originally Posted by James Lacey

If you can believe the political wonks I follow and listen to, and I do try to listen to both sides, the Trump campaign has been a disaster in many ways, especially concerning the get-out-the-vote ground game. Trump's has primarily been non-existent, whereas Harris's has been vigorous and well-organized. There are many indicators the political wonks look at that indicate a Harris win. While early voting data can be interpreted in any way you like, a lot of the early voting data looks good for Harris, but admittedly, some looks good for Trump, too. Overall, though, I think things are leaning Harris' way.

Trump is just a mess and undisciplined. Did you see where he was simulating oral sex with his mic at a rally the other day? What the hell is that? Talk about weird and undisciplined. The comedian at the NY MAGA rally who famously made the "garbage" comments was also apparently recommended by the Vance team and entirely unvetted, even though it's known he's a shock and insult comic. Who the hell let that happen? This is not a disciplined campaign at all.

By the way, Trump will win Texas, but I think it will be closer than anyone could have imagined. The reality is that Trump has slipped drastically, even in states like Kansas, which used to be solid red. That does not bode well for his election at all. Also, women are turning out and voting in droves for Harris, and they can't stand Trump.  If you had to choose which candidate you wanted to be right now, most of us would choose Harris. I still believe Trump's base support has shrunk, and he has not won over new voters, especially when it comes to women or new or young voters. 

Also, Trump is already claiming fraud and filing lawsuits in PA. This is not what a confident campaign does.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

If you can believe the political wonks I follow and listen to, and I do try to listen to both sides, the Trump campaign has been a disaster in many ways, especially concerning the get-out-the-vote ground game. Trump's has primarily been non-existent, whereas Harris's has been vigorous and well-organized. There are many indicators the political wonks look at that indicate a Harris win. While early voting data can be interpreted in any way you like, a lot of the early voting data looks good for Harris, but admittedly, some looks good for Trump, too. Overall, though, I think things are leaning Harris' way.

Trump is just a mess and undisciplined. Did you see where he was simulating oral sex with his mic at a rally the other day? What the hell is that? Talk about weird and undisciplined. The comedian at the NY MAGA rally who famously made the "garbage" comments was also apparently recommended by the Vance team and entirely unvetted, even though it's known he's a shock and insult comic. Who the hell let that happen? This is not a disciplined campaign at all.

By the way, Trump will win Texas, but I think it will be closer than anyone could have imagined. The reality is that Trump has slipped drastically, even in states like Kansas, which used to be solid red. That does not bode well for his election at all. Also, women are turning out and voting in droves for Harris, and they can't stand Trump.  If you had to choose which candidate you wanted to be right now, most of us would choose Harris. I still believe Trump's base support has shrunk, and he has not won over new voters, especially when it comes to women or new or young voters. 

Also, Trump is already claiming fraud and filing lawsuits in PA. This is not what a confident campaign does.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Yes, many political wonks will be wrong, and I could be entirely wrong. I sure as hell was wrong in 2016. I would have sworn Hillary would win, and she barely lost. Regardless of what happens, though, we will be fine. Despite the dire prognostications on both sides, no matter who wins, the world will not end. In 4 years, my portfolio will still grow considerably, and even if the worst happens for me, such as my and my wife's health failing simultaneously, we will still be ok. I can afford to put us both in a nursing home and still have our principal grow considerably enough to leave behind some legacy building. I would prefer that Harris win, but we will see.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

Because he spams this forum so badly, I could not locate (read would not waste my time) Jrs screed about someone getting in trouble for wearing MAGA paraphernalia at a polling place. I guess the unstable genius has never seen this sign before which I have most of my life. Most states don’t allow that.