Posts Made By: James Brown

Herb usually has a poll, but not this year.  So, what does your gut say - who is going to win?  I am not asking who you want to win, but who you think is going to win.  

I'll go first.  I think Trump wins.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

In the end, I think Dobbs puts Harris over the top, but this really is a toss-up.

Yes, but this is a poll with no toss ups.  

So it is Trump 1, Harris 1

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

And of course, I didn't lie about your posting since you EDITED It, ADDING the words "in my opinion" to your statement before it was EDITED by You.

Wow, you are indeed grasping.  (A)  I did not add the words "In my opinion" when I made the edit at 12:42 PM.  I simply corrected a typo.  And, (B) even if I had added the words "In my opinion" it was there when you first read my post, and replied at 12:46 PM as demonstrated by your use of the quote function, which clearly shows "In my opinion" in my post, where it has always been, well before your first reply.  Do you think an edit updates the quoted text too?  Finally (C) every comment I make is obviously my opinion, unless I cite someone else's opinion.  You did lie, or at least dishonestly characterized my original post (if there is a difference.)  You are a world class loser.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I've been saying all along that I'd expect Trump to win but I agree with Brian, I think women voters along with the expansive voter turnout drive from the Harris campaign will put her over the top.

I wondered if Harris's momentum in the past week had caused you to re-assess.  I personally think the past week's events give one plenty of reason to change an earlier Trump prediction.  I'd be on board with you, but I'm just too stubborn!   

So it is Harris 3, Trump 1 so far.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Division and polarization have always existed in politics. They are especially bad in a winner-take-all system like ours. Even if a national tragedy briefly unites us, we will return to our old ways soon enough.

Thanks for the sage words James.  Also, we are apparently not as polarized as it might seem.  "American voters are less ideologically polarized than they think they are, and that misperception is greatest for the most politically engaged people."  

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/09/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-the-united-states-what-the-research-says?lang=en

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Harris wins Colorado thanks to the RINO in Colorado.

Yep, I delivered. Unfortunately, it does not look like it is going that well for Harris as of 8 o’clock mountain time.

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Looking very good for trump now. He is ahead in Pennsylvania which is the key to winning.

Looks like Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters are dramatic and real.

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

Especially Putin.  

The American voters have handed Ukraine to Russia.

Not far behind will be Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.  Right after Trump pulls the US out of NATO.

Dave

We will have to revisit this when Trump is in office Dave.  I understand the risk, but I am not as sure as some that the US will pull military aid from the Ukraine.  Jim

First and foremost I am disappointed about some things and happy about others.  On balance, I am and remain confident the US will continue to thrive.  I am very pleased the imminent risk of Court packing is gone.  I expect the states will sort out the abortion issue adequately.  I think Constitutional checks and balances will curb Trump's worst impulses.   I predict right now that Trump will be cursing the Supreme Court as a pack of nine traitors well before his term is up, when the Court curbs his executive overreach.

It is now clear that significant numbers of the working class, including working blacks and Latinos have realigned toward Trump and the Rs.  Some of us have questioned where Trump was going to get more votes than he got before, and the answer was always right in front of us.  From "the working classes," but we elites never really believed it.  Because of this, I now think a Haley or a Romney would have lost to Harris.  Trump's base would have stayed home.  Also, perhaps, we have heard the last about the superiority of the Democrat's ground game?  Looks like the overall turnout was depressed.  CNN showed a graphic where Trump overperformed 2020 by 3% in more than a thousand counties and several states.  Harris over performed Biden by this amount in no states and only a few counties.

What motivated this political realignment?  First, the Biden economy, inflation in particular.  Second the Democratic elites' disdain for the working class has been heard loud and clear for many years now.   The Democratic party sold their historic base in exchange for the highbrows of the professions, tech, academia, entertainment, and journalism.  I think in retrospect one could have predicted the outcome of this election by the lukewarm union support Harris received.  Third factor is lawfare blowback.  I predicted the criminal prosecutions would backfire against the Democrats, and I feel vindicated.  I sure hope/pray that lawfare is a thing of the past.  I know Trump has promised vengeance against his political enemies, but I hope he was just blustering.  Maybe Melania can make him see sense.

I think Biden's decision to hang on to the bitter end also was a huge factor.  Harris probably was not the best D candidate, but there was no time to pick a better one.  That said, Harris's failure to differentiate herself from Biden, and her campaign strategy of vibes and joy, followed by fearmongering, are not going to age well.

Cruz won the TX Senate by 10 points.  Maybe Texas is not going to be purple after all.  

Seems the polling was adequate, from a mathematical point of view.  The swing states all polled as ties in the RCP/Silver/538 type aggregates.  Then, the election results all fell within the typical +/- 3 margin of error.  It has long been known that a standard polling error in one direction or the other would lead to an EC landslide for the beneficiary.  I do suspect that the pollster's habit of herding around a consensus, in this case a tie, caused them to suppress or modify polls showing a big Trump lead. 

On the other hand, it feels like a big polling fail.  Not so much in the swing states, but I doubt many pollsters captured Trump's overall strength in the blue states.  The results in Virginia were shocking and an early tell that Trump had this election.  The polling errors have always been to under poll Trump anytime he is in the race, which makes a poll and model consumer like me feel that either the pollsters have their thumb on the scale, or that political polling simply can not deal with an underlying political realignment as noted above. 

If Alan Lichtman had applied his keys to the election honestly, he would have predicted a Trump win.

The market reaction is wild, I wonder if this rally will have legs.  Jim

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

The biggest ONE day rise on the day after election since 1900, 124 years. 

I guess that FEAR mongering from the left amounts to just more of their dozens and dozens of lies, right?

Yes, if the market stays up.  In 2016 the market crashed and then recovered almost immediately as people got rational.  I think it is likely that this spike will drop back to earth - again as people get rational.   Maybe not, I'm just a buy and hold guy.