Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

Richard, I guess you are not going to admit your initial post with the headline,"Twisted, vile Leftist Democrat party Honors Murderering Assassin Luigi Mangione with Health Care Bill." was completely and utterly wrong.

An apology is even more unlikely.

Dave

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Typical Davis thread. LOL

I’m sure he’ll be interested to know I’m now traveling to a part of the world I’ve never been to. Belize, Jamaica, and Cozumel, along with a stop at Holland America’s private island, and the last stop is Key West where I’ve been many times. 

It’s tough being a world traveler, but someone has to do it. Spending my kids inheritance one cruise at a time.

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

It only took me half a sentence, though - shorter than his f'ing thread title. 

Originally Posted by James Lacey

What he's doing is entirely bonkers. It will not bring back manufacturing to the US or lower prices. These reciprocal tariffs are also equally insane. We must import stuff because we don't make it or have enough of it. Coffee from Central and South America and lumber from Canada come to mind. Even if we opened every national park for logging, we could never produce enough lumber to sustain our building and construction commerce. So, imposing tariffs there merely because you see a trade deficit is simple-minded and naive. Every case of trade needs to be examined and considered on its merit. The tariffs are not even "reciprocal." Instead, they are being imposed simply because there is a trade deficit, regardless of whether or not that trade imbalance is logical or benefits us. A trade imbalance does not inherently mean the other country cheats us. This policy is reckless and careless and will cause unnecessary pain.

Several things can happen now. One is that they can soon realize what a mistake they have made and roll back or not implement these tariffs. They will probably try to spin it as, "We had to roll them back because the American people weren't willing to take one for the team." Another is they can double down, drive us into a recession with high inflation, and then when the economy does finally recover, they can claim, "See, we told you it would work!" Lastly, they could do something in between with various amounts of spin and gaslighting regarding how they knew what they were doing or that the outcome was not their fault. Even if you agree with their objectives, even a bit of common sense should tell you this is an awful way to achieve them.

Originally Posted by Brian McFarland

It's hard to fathom how much damage one person can do.  I wonder what happened to all the checks and balances.

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

Instability caused by the reaction to the tariffs is clear in this graph of today's DJIA up to about 2:20pm EDT.

Buy at A, sell at B.   Make about 5.5%.  Now take that as the new principal , buy at C, sell at D, make about 3.4%, E to F  2%, the G to H 2.7%.

How did you do overall..?    (1.055)(1.034)(1.02)(1.027) = overall gain 1.143 or 14%.  in less than 6 hours.

If you started this with a million dollars you'll have made $140 000 which is more money than the vast majority makes in one year. In 6 hours.

Create the chaos and ride the wave to make, as Dire Straits put it, Money for Nothing......  But only the top 1% or fewer people could do this..  

the broligarchs are making bank on this.  

Dave

Originally Posted by Brian McFarland

Well, we now know the answer to the question "What could possibly go wrong?" LOL

Originally Posted by The David Cotterell

That graph I posted  is found by just typing DJIA into my browser.  It comes up with the graph updated to the very minute that I pressed 'return'.  Not much of a stretch to think than someone could  just watch that graph in pretty much real time (refresh button) and then give the buy or sell order within a minute or two.  Heck I'd bet there are websites where the graph is 100% live.  Transactions timed to within two minutes of a peak or a valley is entirely possible.  

Dave

Originally Posted by James Brown

Yes, real time graphs are available. My point is that as you watch that graph go up to the point of say 5% gain over the course of several minutes, our hypothetical day trader has no idea if the next several minutes, bring an additional 5% gain, or a loss. You are assuming that the day trader with remarkable foresight, sells  the peak of the gain, and buys at the bottom of an intraday loss. And that he hits the precise peaks and valleys several times over the course of a day.   It is just as likely that the day trader thinks he has identified the Peak, sells,  and then potentially loses value when the market continues on an upward trajectory. I’m sure a lot of people made money yesterday day trading. I am equally certain a lot of people lost big time yesterday.  No one can time each peak and valley of a ridiculously volatile day like yesterday in real time. It is easy to look at the graph with 2020 hindsight and mark off the peaks and valleys.

Today is a good day to try this out yourself. We have already seen ridiculous volatility and massive multi point swings up and down. Take a look at any chart and say “if I had $1 million to bet, would I bet that the market, or more likely the stock I am looking at, is going up down or sideways from this point forward? I think on a day like today you might as well be flipping a coin.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Here is my point.  Assume you had the chart below in actual real time.  Is the market or stock price going up, down, or sideways from this point in time?  If we knew, we would have a money printing machine.  (Looks like it is going down, but how far???)  Savvy day traders and market technical analysts might be better at guessing than you or me, but no one hits the precise peaks and valleys in real time, several times over the course of a day, like you suggested in your first post on this interesting sidebar.  J