Originally Posted by James Lacey
There is no direct evidence that the virus was engineered or that it "escaped" from a Wuhan lab. There is, however, a lot of evidence that supports a zoonotic origin. Therefore, the overarching scientific consensus is that the virus arose naturally.
Wildlife coronaviruses have long been a threat for spillover into the human population. Scientists have been warning us about it and studying coronaviruses for decades because they knew we were at risk, just like we are at risk for a spillover of H5N1 that will make COVID-19 seem easy and pleasant by comparison. For that matter, COVID-19 is not even the first coronavirus to spread to the human population. There have been several notable examples in just the last 20 or so years—namely, SARS-CoV-2 in 2019, MERS-CoV in 2012, and SARS-COV in 2003. In total, there have been 16 known major zoonotic viral outbreaks in humans over the last 50 years, whereas there have been zero lab leaks that have caused a global pandemic.
The well-known threat of coronaviruses is just one reason we were able to develop a vaccine so quickly. It was already well understood, for example, that using mRNA vaccines to trigger an immune response to the COVID-19 spike protein would be an effective strategy.
All of this doesn't mean that there are shortages of support for the lab-leak conspiracy. You can find numerous opinion pieces and even intelligence reports from our government using their influence to support the lab-leak theory. There are also congressional committee reports supporting the lab-leak theory, but just like Trump's updates to the government's COVID-19 informational sites, they are heavily influenced by politics. Regardless, the scientific consensus is that the lab-leak theory is improbable.
Hi James, articles like this and your posts have certainly changed my view of the likely origins of COVID 19:
https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/jvi.01240-24
The main thing I can cite as a reason for my previous view that lab leak was believed by the scientific community to be the most likely scenario is the 2023 FBI assessment. Still not sure what would motivate the FBI to favor a lab leak in 2023, seems politically disadvantageous. In any case, you’ve motivated me to do some in depth reading and my point of view has changed. Have I ever told you how much I admire your intellect?
Only thing I ought to add for the forum in general is that lab leak is not a propeller beanie or flat earth thing. All of the more careful scientists acknowledge that the origins of COVID are still an open question, even though zoonotic origins are the leading theory.
