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Posts Made By: Dean Rowe

January 22, 2010 01:05 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Adjustments for 88 Stations Make Warming

Posted By Dean Rowe

"someone" "found a paper"? That's some top notch scholastic work there Dave! Perhaps you could tell us which paper they found - if it's one I linked earlier maybe I can get credit for it's rediscovery wink

and to nobody's surprise the algorithm makes the past cooler, the present warmer, and smooths out unwanted 'anomalies' like the warm period around 1940

Perhaps they weren't surprised because they knew their "raw" chart averaged station temps while their "adjusted" chart used anomalies -


much as I mentioned to James just yesterday:
The grids are constructed with station anomalies - how much it varies from some base period - and not the station temps themselves. That helps account for things like elevation differences and such between stations.
http://www.astromart.com/forums/viewpost.asp?forum_post_id=698496&poll_id=&news_id=&page=

January 26, 2010 12:38 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

GISS Claims This Was Warmest Decade on Record

Posted By Dean Rowe

Dave Snope said:
And the satellite temperature records have 2009 at the 15th coolest.

Sorry Dave, not even close. The UAH satellite temps has 2009 as the 25th, not 15th, coolest of 31. Did you just make that up or did you get it from that "someone" who "found a paper"?

1 1984 -0.258083333
2 1985 -0.213
3 1992 -0.191333333
4 1982 -0.15275
5 1993 -0.148666667
6 1986 -0.147333333
7 1988 -0.12625
8 1979 -0.0725
9 1994 -0.011833333
10 1996 0.02175
11 2000 0.03525
12 1983 0.03575
13 1999 0.041333333
14 1997 0.047166667
15 2008 0.048416667
16 1981 0.05275
17 1989 0.061166667
18 1990 0.061166667
19 1980 0.087833333
20 1987 0.110416667
21 1995 0.11075
22 1991 0.117666667
23 2004 0.195916667
24 2001 0.197916667
[COLOR="Red"]25 2009 0.26[/COLOR]
26 2006 0.260833333
27 2003 0.275333333
28 2007 0.282416667
29 2002 0.311833333
30 2005 0.339
31 1998 0.514

From:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

For someone who loves to post haping on others, you sure have a hard time getting even easy facts right...

January 27, 2010 12:57 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

18 More Non-Peer Opinion Sources in IPCC AR4

Posted By Dean Rowe

Dave Snope said:
... Yet IPCC’s rules are such that they are supposed to rely on peer reviewed science only. It appears they’ve violated that rule dozens of times, all under Pachauri’s watch.

Sorry Dave, once again you are just flat out wrong. Rather than relying solely on WUWT feeds you, why not simply go to the IPCC and see what their published rules are:

PROCEDURES FOR THE PREPARATION, REVIEW, ACCEPTANCE, ADOPTION, APPROVAL AND PUBLICATION OF IPCC REPORTS

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf

Specifically see page 14 - the section titled - um, well:
PROCEDURE FOR USING NON-PUBLISHED/NON-PEER-REVIEWED SOURCES IN IPCC REPORTS

Ah yes, the IPCC rules specifically allow non-peer reviewed material - directly contradicting your post and the misinformation WUWT fed to you.

So Dave, are you outraged that WUWT mislead you into posting (yet another) embarrassingly ill-informed post?

What we have here is a supposed "skeptic" un-skeptically buying into a blog post whose most basic fact is false (and easily checked at that) - all in a post questioning the reliability of cited material. What irony!!

January 28, 2010 12:27 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Study shows poorly sited US stations biased!

Posted By Dean Rowe

Anthony Watts' response to the study:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/27/rumours-of-my-death-have-been-greatly-exaggerated/

February 12, 2010 12:45 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Hansen's colleague eviscerates AR4 Chapter 9

Posted By Dean Rowe

Lacis was commenting on a draft 2 years before the final version. Of the final version, Revkin on Dot Earth quoted him saying:

“The revised chapter was much improved,” he said. “That’s different than saying everything in there is nailed down, but I think it’s a big improvement.”

Overall, he said, “I commend the authors for doing as good a job as they did. That’s the way the science process ought to work. You get inputs from everybody, find any bugs, crank through and the science moves forward.”

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/09/does-an-old-climate-critique-still-hold-up/

In the same article, he quotes Gabriele Hegerl "one of two coordinating lead authors for this chapter"

Andrew Lacis’ comment at the time seemed to result from not realizing that all the ‘meat’ in the chapter is BEHIND the executive summary (and he seems to have been satisfied as he seems to have commented only on technical issues on a later draft).

Which would explain the rejection that BH finds amazing (its the SUMMARY)

Also note that Hegerl indicates there were drafts after the the one BH complains about, so not only wasn't it the final version, it was an early draft.

February 12, 2010 12:55 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

I knew this wouldn't take long

Posted By Dean Rowe

Andreas Saldivar said:
...
I said to my wife "I bet it doesn't take long for someone to blame it on global warming." I was right, it didn't. I wonder if the writer was smiling when he wrote it or did he keep a straight face.

Andreas

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599196229400

Per the article:

Ultimately, however, it's a mistake to use any one storm - or even a season's worth of storms - to disprove climate change (or to prove it; some environmentalists have wrongly tied the lack of snow in Vancouver, the site of the Winter Olympic Games, which begin this week, to global warming). Weather is what will happen next weekend; climate is what will happen over the next decades and centuries. And while our ability to predict the former has become reasonably reliable, scientists are still a long way from being able to make accurate projections about the future of the global climate.

Doesn't sound like they are blaming it on global warming at all.

They do mention Jeff Master's blog post about the storm & global warming - worth reading:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1427

What's funny is you read his blog post, you see what it's really about:
Global warming skeptics regularly have a field day whenever a record snow storm pounds the U.S., claiming that such events are inconsistent with a globe that is warming.
when such events are in fact consistent with global warming...

February 19, 2010 11:15 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

The Fog of Global Warming

Posted By Dean Rowe

That goes to show that you need to be careful where you get your science from. Obviously, newspapers aren't a good source for understanding whats going on wink

February 28, 2010 05:43 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

80% of sea-level experts disagree with the IPCC

Posted By Dean Rowe

Nils-Axel Mörner is a bit of a nut case. In addition to some odd archeology stuff, he's a proponent of dowsing including much criticized courses at the University of Stockholm
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sv&u=http://www.vof.se/folkvett/20031positiva-slagruteundersokningar

And even a book on dowsing:
"Yet it moves: dowsing as a tool then and now"
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sv&u=http://shop.textalk.se/se/article.php%3Fid%3D1086%26art%3D216544

March 1, 2010 05:19 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

New Paper Calls NCDC Temperature Data "Accentuated"

Posted By Dean Rowe

OK, here's what I figured out. I was able to reproduce his results pretty well. The two main things I found were that his choice of rural stations tended to double the difference the adjustments made. What he missed was that some of the stations he used were actually 2, 3 or 4 stations merged together. The raw data for these stations are simple merged together in the raw data without any adjustment for the different stations. In my reconstruction, I didn't try to adjust these stations, I just dropped them.

While that corrected some of the "gap" between raw and adjusted rural data, it didn't correct for all of it. There may be other factors that add to the "gap" (like being averaged anomalies instead of grid cells), but I'm not going to bother trying to figure it out. So the next thing I did was look at the data set that was adjusted only for changes in the time of observation. As I mentioned earlier, there was a shift from taking observations midday to taking them early in the morning which would introduce a cooling bias.

When plotted with the rural data it is very clear that the adjustment for the time of observation was by far most of the adjustments made. When plotted with the urban data there was very little difference - not surprising since the raw and adjusted urban data are pretty similar.

So - the question is why does the change in observation time adjustment affect the rural stations more than the urban ones? The only thing I can think of is rural stations tend to be liquid-in-glass thermometers that are manually read while urban stations tend to be electronic and are read automatically. I don't know if the time of observation changed with more rural stations than the urban ones (there is a data file that might indicate that, but I don't understand whats in it).

Here's my plots. I added some offsets to get the charts to line up like the article did (he subtracted 0.2 from the raw rural data to get it to line up more to the left side)

Rural & urban raw data from the article:


My reconstruction of the rural data before and after adjustment using the same stations


Unmerged rural stations before & after all adjustments and adjusted only for time of observation.
Notice that using just unmerged stations reduced the "gap" almost by half. Also notice that almost all of the adjustment was for changes in the time of observation


And unmerged urban stations before & after all adjustments and adjusted only for time of observation.
Notice that the time of observation adjustments were minor.


[edited 07/31/2012 to replace rural station chart that imageshack had dropped]

March 3, 2010 10:58 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Gore Called a 'Laughingstock' at Apple Shareholder

Posted By Dean Rowe

Dave Snope said:
“I stand in opposition to the re-election of Al Gore to Apple’s board. He has become a laughing stock. The Himalayan glaciers are not melting, the seas are not rising and the medieval warm period has returned. If his advice to Apple is as bad as his positions on the environment he should not be on Apple’s board.”

Seeing that the Himalayan glaciers are melting and sea levels are measurably rising, it's probably a good thing for Apple shareholders that Ehrlich isn't on the board...