Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by James Lacey

The problem as I see it is that leadership matters. I know that the right likes to wax poetically about personal responsibility, and liberty, and so forth and so on. However, like it or not, people take their cues from their leaders. And if a leader is sending mixed messages, then subordinates will seize on that lack of principle as an excuse to behave badly. Can anyone think of any examples of this phenomenon during the Trump presidency? I'm asking for a friend. On the other hand, if a leader offers a clear and sensible vision for dealing with a particular problem, then supporters will similarly work diligently to make that thought a reality.

What Abbot has done, in my humble opinion, is shown poor leadership and opened the door for further erosion of the non-pharmaceutical interventions that have been working. And he has done it at a terrible time when we are on the cusp of beating this thing finally with the large-scale rollout of vaccines and when variants are emerging and surging and causing new dangers. The courageous thing to do would have been to rationally explain why the state needs to stay the course and encourage everyone to act collectively to cross the finish line, despite the political harm it would have caused him.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Darian:

Of course this is true, and I appreciate Colorado opening up more restaurant seating and so on in view of our declining numbers.  There is one thing that you have posted that I think is untrue.  No one wants to continue wearing masks.  At least the truly hypochondriac paranoid types are a tiny group.  In my view, masking up in public is a small price to pay to help protect society.  It is much easier to swallow than massive shut-downs and economic devastation for example.  

Consider this, the yellow trace in the graph below is the actual Louisiana infection rate according to Johns Hopkins.  This pattern is common among many states.  A small bump (in retrospect) in March-April when we were just getting started with distancing and masks, a bigger bump in the summer and a really big bump in the fall and early winter.  

Right now the infection numbers are declining in almost every state, yours included.  Probably some combination of partial immunity, vaccinations of the elderly, better care of populations like nursing homes, and of course widespread acceptance of masks, distancing and so on.  Good for us.

The red and green lines are my hypothetical projections of how this could go forward.  Obviously our goal is the green line, but even if we go full "red line," eventually herd immunity will kick in and the pandemic will subside.  Just like the Spanish Flu did 100 years ago.  Took two full years though.  Also obvious is the recognition that there is a lot more human and economic suffering between now and the end of the pandemic if we follow the red line.  Wearing masks and distancing for a while will keep us closer to the green line.  It is a small price to pay, and much better for society in the long run.

I don't like mask snobs either.  The "two-masks are better than one mask crowd" are irksome.   Those I see wearing masks while driving their own car alone are laughable.  But wearing a mask in public indoor spaces or crowded outdoor spaces makes a lot of sense to help us follow the green line out of this.  

Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Rod, our statements are not exclusive or contradictory of each other.  

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Hi Jim, perhaps not but I still dislike maskholes more! 

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Darian:

You're welcome of course!  As you and I have discussed before, I like fussing with the data a lot more than some folks!  I'm going to do a multi-part post in the long "data and graphs" thread that I think is pretty interesting.  Let me know what you think after I get it done and you check it out.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Here is an excellent article that talks about the perceived disparity between the US and other countries:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/01/why-does-the-pandemic-seem-to-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others

It's a bit long but well worth the read. The synopsis is:

1. Age is a key factor; less affected countries tend to have a lower median age, whereas more affected countries tend to have a higher median age. For example, India's median age is 28, whereas the median age in the US is 40.

2. The structure of families and who cohabitates with who matters. For example, are the elderly warehoused in long-term care facilities with rotating care-takers who reside elsewhere, or do they tend to be homebound live with family members who take care of them?

3. Underreporting in countries with poor public health systems is a problem. However, it's hard to hide bodies, and the all-cause mortality data can help reveal the true scope of a problem but is not as good as accurate coroner reports.

4. The pandemic may not have shown up yet in full-force in relatively unaffected countries.

5. Government response is a key factor, and the strength of a public-health system matters.

6. Differences in immunology across geographical populations might play a role, i.e., some geographical populations are naturally more resistant to COVID-19.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Er, ah, thanks for the information...BUT:
Other countries DON'T have anti-maskers to the degree that we do in the good 'ol USA. Case in point: IDAHO, the state with the highest positivity in the country last October  just had anti-maskers burning their masks with their children taking part in the bonfires: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-07/protesters-burn-masks-at-idaho-capitol-rally-against-rules-us/13224588
The age group in Idaho with the most cases is 18-29 with 43,132 cases.There are a total of 139,874 confirmed cases and 33,057 probable cases in all 44 of the 44 counties in Idaho, total recorded deaths 1,879.
And not to be outdone in Colorado yesterday,  SWAT got pummeled: "The large gathering came a day after Colorado Gov. Jared Polis extended the state's Covid-19 mask mandate, which has been in place since July 2020. Nearly 6,000 people have died in Colorado due to Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/us/boulder-colorado-large-party-officers-injured/index.html
Meanwhile, https://www.ksl.com/article/50120228/cdc-study-finds-mask-mandates-slow-coronavirus-spread-dining-out-can-increase-cases
So, the fact is, we're in our own mess because, in large part, it's the behavior of our own citizens that is the problem.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Have you ever been to Boulder Rod?  Have you ever been to a party on University Hill?  This is our Berkeley.  I can absolutely guarantee that there was not a single Trump supporter at that party.  At least not any willing to admit it.

Jim

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I've been to Greeley Colorado once and that's enough. At the time I was there, the town had a motel, a K-Mart, an IHOP and a fast food joint. And that was it. Now I see the town's got 100,000 people. Whoopee!
Now, back to the maskholes: Granted the virulence of the virus is a primary cause of the pandemic, the pathetic response of the Trump administration and their followers accentuated the calamity untold multifold over what it might otherwise would have been, given the fact that Trump withheld vital information about the virus from the very beginning of all of it. The deniers took it from there...
Europe ought to be buying Sputnik from Russia. It's cheaper and more effective than the J&J vaccine. Still, the variants are a wildcard no matter where you live and the Republican governors are once again playing with fire by doing what they're doing....