Originally Posted by James Brown
Do you personally agree that we are not in a recession? I've seen some nuanced, but unpersuasive arguments that even though we have 2 quarters of contraction this is still not "technically" a recession. Like I mentioned to Rich, I don't necessary think the politicians are "lying." Maybe under some sort of nuanced caveat to the basic definition we do not qualify. Perhaps you can explain it. Serious question there.
I am confident that most everyone who thinks about it believes we are in recession. The nuanced denials comes across as political spin, and if you look at Biden's numbers it is obviously ineffective spin.
Jim
No, I don't believe we're currently in a recession for several reasons. First, job growth isn't receding; it's increasing and that's not what happens in a recession. There's no mass layoffs anywhere, either. Second, construction is either increasing or minimally slowing, if at all, and that's not what happens in a recession.
That correlates with what Powell said, "I do not think the US is currently in a recession," "There are just too many areas of the economy that are performing too well."
And: "Pay attention: Inventories, or goods held by a business that haven't been sold yet, had a major role to play."
"Companies stocked up on many items late last year as they attempted to dodge supply chain problems and ensure they could meet resurgent demand.
But in recent months, they've realized they have too much stuff, especially at an uncertain moment for manufacturers and shoppers, and become hesitant to place new orders."
"The subsequent slowdown in inventory accumulation contributed to a large chunk of the contraction between April and June, removing a whopping two percentage points from economic output."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
