Bear Market...

Started by Rod Kaufman, 11/21/2018 09:18AM
Posted 11/21/2018 09:18AM Opening Post
Obama got us out of a bear market. Trump just got us into one:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/19/investing/stocks-bear-market-morgan-stanley/index.html
Trump's financial advisor, Kudlow, has one thing going for him. He's been wrong in every financial prediction he's ever made. The one with China, a major factor in the market meltdown, continues to suck for everyone. 
I hope I don't have to post Obama got us out of a recession while Trump got us into one but time will tell. Oh, and nobody got indicted in Obama's administration, either...
Posted 11/22/2018 01:06AM | Edited 11/22/2018 01:09AM #1
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
Obama got us out of a bear market. Trump just got us into one:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/19/investing/stocks-bear-market-morgan-stanley/index.html
Trump's financial advisor, Kudlow, has one thing going for him. He's been wrong in every financial prediction he's ever made. The one with China, a major factor in the market meltdown, continues to suck for everyone. 
I hope I don't have to post Obama got us out of a recession while Trump got us into one but time will tell. Oh, and nobody got indicted in Obama's administration, either...
Hi Rod:


The image below is the DJIA over the entire Obama and Trump administrations.  Could it be that the market is driven by forces bigger than the chap who sits in the Oval Office?

Speaking of being spectacularly wrong, I'm sure glad I did not sell in 11/20116 when you and Mr. wrong himself, Paul Krugman, predicted an epic collapse!  Remember that?  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

"It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?  Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear. 

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never."

Ouch.

Attached Image:

jameslbrown's attachment for post 160398
Posted 11/22/2018 11:08AM #2
Hey Big Jim,
"Could it be that the market is driven by forces bigger than the chap who sits in the Oval Office?"
Of course, but when you listen to Trump tout how great the market is doing because of him(like everything else in his book), then you take on a different look when the market downturns and Trump exits along with the investors. 
I hope this turns out to be a cyclical bear market as one analyst remarked in the link and not some protracted market meltdown we witnessed back in '08. Today, the market was up nearly two hundred points either because of some relatively good financial news or because the bottom feeders came out after selloff looking for bargains in stocks. But it ended up a point down for the day and that's not a good sign when investors sell off on good news. If you look at the financial forecasts for 2019, the best consensus seems to be single digit gains which sucks but it's better than the red tide.
I think we'll see big oli come back as it usually does and that'll help stocks. The wild cards are the trade war with China and another round of indictments from the Mueller investigation. The word on the street is that there's a huge number of sealed indictments sitting in a federal court and they may be the ones arising from the investigation. If that's accurate, it'll probably rattle the markets.
I think the lousy forecasts from the financial gurus are making things much worse that they really are and fear is a major driving force on the market.
Anyway, have a very happy thanksgiving...
Posted 11/24/2018 05:11AM #3
All we can hope for now is a Santa Claus rally...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-poised-to-open-lower-in-black-friday-trade-notch-weekly-loss-of-more-than-3-2018-11-23
Posted 12/09/2018 04:31AM #4
JPMorgan Chase estimated on Friday that the White House's trade agenda may have erased up to 10% of the S& 500's value this year.
"The risk that many market participants underestimated this year was the destabilizing impact of the US administration's trade policies," Marko Kolanovic, global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy at JPMorgan Chase, wrote to clients."
In other words, Jim, the market's dump is due to Trump...
Posted 12/09/2018 04:37AM #5
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
JPMorgan Chase estimated on Friday that the White House's trade agenda may have erased up to 10% of the S& 500's value this year.
"The risk that many market participants underestimated this year was the destabilizing impact of the US administration's trade policies," Marko Kolanovic, global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy at JPMorgan Chase, wrote to clients."
In other words, Jim, the market's dump is due to Trump...
100% True IMO.

The good news is that the little orange menace freaks out when the stock market goes down. The BAD news is that protectionism is the only thing that he has held ideologically since the 90's, other than lining his filthy pockets.
Posted 12/09/2018 06:17AM | Edited 12/09/2018 06:18AM #6
The Koch brothers, Steve Jobs,  Warren Buffett etc. line their clean pockets. They don't sell out their country (or fellow man) for money. You need to look up the meaning of the word envy, Richard.
Posted 12/09/2018 07:01AM #7
For me to explain capitalism to you would be like Pavarotti explaining singing to Milli Vanilli
Posted 12/09/2018 10:42AM #8
The president's characterization of himself as 'Tariff Man' is juvenile and unpresidential," Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, wrote on Thursday. "We can only shake our heads in wonder and dismay."
The president also suggested tariffs will "MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN," despite the fact that these levies are paid by American companies and consumers.
"The payment comes from my pocket and yours," David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, wrote to clients on Thursday. "In a trade war the guns are pointed inward. No one wins."

Add to that:
Former Nixon White House lawyer John Dean said he thinks Congress will have "little choice" but to begin impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump following a Friday evening court filing involving Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.
John Kelly has resigned and reportedly will not talk to Trump. Trump continues his alternate reality charade while taking his cues from Fox's Geraldo Riveria.
I'm sure all of this will inspire confidence in the market and in our economy..
Posted 12/10/2018 04:08AM #9
Heheheh.....gotta admit Rod's post was good for a laugh though lol

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