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Harlem Voters

Started by Tom Dubois, 10/14/2008 12:48AM
Posted 10/14/2008 12:48AM Opening Post
I'm not a Howard Stern fan, but this is interesting none the less:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyvqhdllXgU

two questions come to mind:
1.) How typical are these views amongst Obama supporters?
2.) Will they be offset by Racist who won't vote for Obama because he's black.
Posted 10/14/2008 01:22AM #1
Tom Dubois said:
2.) Will they be offset by Racist who won't vote for Obama because he's black.
They will, by leaps and bounds and orders of magnitude. The numbers just don't compare. The race vote is clearly a McCain advantage.

If you subtract the proportion of black voters expected to vote for McCain from those who voted for Bush in 2004, then further subtract the shift you would expect just from increasing unpopularity of the republican party due to current events, you get maybe a 3-5% max of that vote attributable to race-based effects rather than due to other democratic leanings in the demographic. Given that this minority constitutes about 13% of the population, that means that if 0.6% of the white vote is race-based then they roughly null each other out. If 1% or more of the white vote is overtly race-based, they will completely swamp the opposing race-based effect.

Race-based vote advantage: McCain.
Posted 10/14/2008 02:20AM #2
Tom Dubois said:

I'm not a Howard Stern fan, but this is interesting none the less:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyvqhdllXgU

two questions come to mind:
1.) How typical are these views amongst Obama supporters?
2.) Will they be offset by Racist who won't vote for Obama because he's black.
The key for me is when Stern said "we found this woman". No one knows how many people he interviewed before he found the ones in the clip. He is an entertainer who is not known for his high standards.


There are only 10 kinds of people who understand binary - those that do and those that don't
Posted 10/14/2008 10:41PM #3
I think that it's crystal clear that McCain can get elected without the black vote but Obama cannot get elected without the white vote.
There are more then a few who will not vote for Obama simply because of the color of his skin. These idiots wouldn't accept blood from a black donor if they were bleeding to death and sadly I know more than a couple of them.
If McCain wins, I hope it's a blowout. A margin that's so big that the redneck and swamp yankee vote won't matter. On the other hand if Obama pulls it off, then maybe I don't know as many rednecks and swamp yankees as I believe.