Originally Posted by Darian Rachal
Russ, if I could afford to I would. I'm confident that Trump will win. I have no reason to think otherwise.
By the time November gets here, given current trends, we will be at 250,000 dead. Given the history, there is no reason to think it will get better. Trump and his team are entirely incapable of doing what would be necessary to return us to a safe and viable economy. Without a national testing program that can provide fast results and active contact tracing, we are at the mercy of the virus, and our only choice is non-pharmaceutical interventions like school closings and shut-downs, and so forth. The wrecking ball currently being applied to our economy will continue unabated. The unfortunate thing is that current reporting is that Jared and his team had a national testing program ready to launch, but the WH squashed it since early on the pandemic was affecting only blue states. The thinking was that they would be able to blame Democratic Governors for an inadequate response and use it to political advantage. If this turns out to be accurate, and we have no reason to doubt it is not, there will be a huge backlash. It is unconscionable that almost six months into this crisis, we still do not have adequate testing and contact tracing.
Last quarter GDP fell by over 30%, the worst on record. Unemployment benefits and pandemic relief are expiring. Soon, people will be getting evicted. Unemployment is already at historical highs and will probably get worse. If Trump does get his way and schools reopen, there will be hell to pay. When parents find out the only reason their kids have not been getting sick is that they have been home, and they start infecting their families, there will be a huge outcry. One summer-camp the CDC has been studying ended up with 50% of the campers testing positive for COVID in a matter of weeks. There is evidence kids can carry much higher viral loads than adults and be asymptomatic. Some private schools that tried to reopen have already had to shut back down.
The simple question is, out of all this chaos that anyone with even a bit of imagination can see coming, and that will lie at Trump's feet, which part of it do you honestly believe is going to help Trump's reelection chances?
